The Fed Will Cut Rates Next Week — But That Doesn’t Mean Mortgage Rates Will

Posted by Felicia Morales, Broker/Owner at Lumina Real Estate & Lending, serving all of Southern California from Temecula, CA

Why the buzz about a rate cut?

Later this month, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate — and headlines may make it sound like mortgage rates will follow. But here in Temecula and across Southern California, the real impact is more nuanced. Many buyers and homeowners assume a Fed cut means cheaper mortgages... but that’s not always true. (mortgageratesupdate.com)

What happened last time?

In both September 2025 and September 2024, the Fed cut rates — yet mortgage rates moved higher. Why? Because markets had already priced in the cuts and were reacting to fresh economic data. (mortgageratesupdate.com)

Here’s what actually drives mortgage rates

• Mortgage rates react more to inflation reports, job data, and investor sentiment than the Fed rate directly.
• The market usually anticipates Fed decisions weeks in advance — so any “benefit” is often already baked in.
• Local economic conditions (like home inventory in Temecula or buyer activity in Menifee) can impact what rates you’re offered.

Current national mortgage averages

• 30‑yr Fixed: 6.19 % (+0.01)
• 15‑yr Fixed: 5.76 % (+0.02)
• FHA 30‑yr: 5.95 %
• VA 30‑yr: 5.97 %
• Jumbo 30‑yr: 6.14 %
• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.85 %

These are national averages — your actual rate will vary based on credit, location, and loan type.

What this means for Temecula & SoCal homeowners

Whether you’re in Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee, Fallbrook, or Wine Country, a small shift in rates can make a big difference in monthly payment or purchasing power. I’ve been seeing clients asking:

• Should I buy now or wait for rates to drop?
• Can I refinance or tap my equity?
• How can I make my home purchase more affordable?

I help clients navigate these exact questions every week. If you want someone who understands both local real estate and mortgage lending, let’s connect.

Or call/text me anytime: 951‑760‑8307
I’m Felicia, The Broker — your Temecula neighbor and your trusted guide for both homes and loans.