A Rare Week of Data: Why Rates Took 2 Steps Forward and 2 Steps Back

Posted by Felicia Morales, Broker/Owner at Lumina Real Estate & Lending, based in Temecula, CA and serving all of Southern California

Strong Data, Soft Data, and Mortgage Rates on the Move

This past week was a rollercoaster for the bond market — and mortgage rates followed. With key government reports paused due to the shutdown, investors looked to alternative data sources to gauge the health of the economy.

What Moved Rates Higher Midweek

• ADP Employment Report showed unexpected strength
• ISM Services Report revealed a surge in “new orders,” the third-highest reading in over two years
• Markets interpreted this as a sign the economy may not be slowing — and bond yields (which drive mortgage rates) jumped

Then the Market Shifted Again

Enter: Revelio Labs — a synthetic jobs data provider using aggregated trends. Their report showed a modest job loss for October. This was followed by consumer sentiment data hitting its lowest point in 70+ years.

The result? Bonds reversed direction, and mortgage rates came back down.

Bottom Line: Rates Took 2 Steps Up, 2 Steps Back

This week is a reminder that mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line. They respond to expectations, surprises, and even less-known data sources when mainstream reports are on pause.

Temecula & SoCal Buyers: Here’s What to Watch

• If you're waiting for "the perfect rate," you might miss the window
• Markets are ultra-sensitive right now — timing and strategy matter more than ever
• Local buyers still have opportunities, especially with seller-paid rate buydowns or low-equity HELOCs

Or text me directly at 951‑760‑8307
— Felicia, The Broker™

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